Intelligence
The Intelligence page provides geopolitical and macro-level analysis tools for monitoring global risk and institutional positioning. It consolidates conflict data, open-source intelligence, prediction markets, and futures positioning into a single view.
Geopolitical Globe
Section titled “Geopolitical Globe”A full-width interactive 3D globe (also available in compact form on the Dashboard) that visualizes global events in real time. Events are plotted as markers on the globe, color-coded by type and severity.
Data Sources
Section titled “Data Sources”| Source | Coverage |
|---|---|
| ACLED | Armed conflict location and event data |
| UCDP | Uppsala Conflict Data Program |
| GDELT | Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone |
| HAPI | Humanitarian Data Exchange |
| USGS | Geological events (earthquakes, volcanic activity) |
| EONET | NASA Earth Observatory natural event tracking |
| INFORM | National risk index (base layer) |
Regional Presets
Section titled “Regional Presets”Jump directly to areas of interest using the regional preset buttons:
| Preset | Focus Area |
|---|---|
| Global | Full world view |
| Strait of Hormuz | Persian Gulf oil transit chokepoint |
| South China Sea | Maritime territorial disputes |
| Europe | European theater |
| Middle East | Middle Eastern conflicts and events |
Click any event marker on the globe to view details including event type, date, source, and description. Zoom and rotate the globe to explore specific regions.
Prediction Markets
Section titled “Prediction Markets”Real-money prediction market contracts from Polymarket, displaying current probabilities on geopolitical, economic, political, and crypto events. Each contract shows:
- Question — The event being predicted
- Probability — Current market-implied likelihood (color-coded)
- Volume — Total trading volume on the contract
Prediction markets aggregate the views of participants with real money at stake, providing a market-based estimate of event probabilities. This complements the geopolitical globe by quantifying the likelihood of specific outcomes.
Categories include: Geopolitics, Economy, Politics, Crypto, and Other.
Intel Feed
Section titled “Intel Feed”Aggregated defense, OSINT, and geopolitical analysis from six curated sources:
| Source | Focus |
|---|---|
| War on the Rocks | Defense policy and military strategy analysis |
| Bellingcat | Open-source investigations and digital forensics |
| Atlantic Council | Geopolitics, international security, and policy |
| Foreign Affairs | International relations and global strategy |
| CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies |
| Breaking Defense | Defense industry news and procurement |
Each article displays a color-coded source badge, title, description, and publication time with an external link to the full article.
Filtering
Section titled “Filtering”Filter the feed by category:
- All — All sources combined
- Defense — Military strategy, procurement, and policy
- OSINT — Open-source investigations and digital forensics
- Geopolitics — International relations and security analysis
COT Positioning
Section titled “COT Positioning”CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) data showing institutional and speculative positioning in futures markets. This weekly report reveals how different market participants are positioned.
Asset Groups
Section titled “Asset Groups”| Group | Examples |
|---|---|
| Indices | S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, Russell 2000 futures |
| Energy | Crude oil, natural gas, gasoline futures |
| Metals | Gold, silver, copper, platinum futures |
| Forex | EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, AUD, CAD futures |
| Agriculture | Corn, wheat, soybeans, cotton, sugar futures |
| Bonds | Treasury bonds, notes, Eurodollar futures |
Table Columns
Section titled “Table Columns”| Column | Description |
|---|---|
| Contract | Futures contract name |
| Open Interest | Total outstanding contracts |
| Speculator Net | Net position of large speculators (managed money) |
| Commercial Net | Net position of commercial hedgers |
| Retail Net | Net position of non-reportable (retail) traders |
| WoW Change | Week-over-week change in speculator positioning |
| Spec Bias | Visual bar showing bullish/bearish lean |
Reading COT Data
Section titled “Reading COT Data”- Speculator net long (green) — Managed money is bullish on the asset
- Speculator net short (red) — Managed money is bearish
- Extreme positioning — When speculator positions reach historical extremes, it can signal potential reversals
- Commercial vs speculator divergence — When commercials (hedgers) and speculators take opposite sides, it often precedes directional moves
The COT report is published weekly by the CFTC and covers regulated futures markets. For commodity-specific COT data, see Commodities. For FX-specific positioning, see Currencies.
Related Resources
Section titled “Related Resources”- Dashboard — Real-time market command center
- Fixed Income — Treasury yields and central bank rates
- Commodities — Energy charts and commodity COT
- Currencies — FX rates and currency COT